Alright, let’s talk about how I figured out my picks for Stage 8 of the Tour de France this year. It wasn’t super complicated, just my usual routine when I try to guess these things.
Looking at the Stage First
So, the very first thing I did was grab the details for Stage 8. I needed to understand the parcours, you know? What kind of day were the riders facing? I looked up the profile. Was it flat? Hilly? Big mountains? This tells you a lot about who might have a chance.
I saw it had some climbs, not massive Alpine stuff, but tricky enough. Looked like a day that could go a few ways – maybe a breakaway sticks, maybe the punchier guys fight it out on a late climb. Definitely not a straightforward sprint stage, that much was clear.
Checking Rider Condition
Next up, I thought about the riders themselves. Who’s been looking good in the race so far? You get a feel for who has the legs by watching the previous stages. I checked the results from Stages 6 and 7, saw who was finishing strong, who was active in breaks, and who looked comfortable on similar terrain.
- Who attacked recently?
- Who held on well in the hills?
- Anyone looking surprisingly tired?
This helps narrow down the list from 170+ riders to a more manageable group.
Thinking About Team Plans
Teams always have a plan, even if it changes on the road. I considered the big teams. Were they focused purely on the overall classification? If so, they might just control the pace and not chase a breakaway too hard unless their main rivals were in it. Or was a team maybe without a top GC guy looking for stage wins? Those teams are more likely to send riders up the road or set up their Classics-style riders for the finish.
Example: If a team’s leader was safe, they might let a strong non-threatening rider try their luck for the stage.
Matching Rider Type to the Stage
Knowing the stage profile and rider form, I started matching. Stage 8 looked good for strong guys who can handle repeated hills and maybe have a kick at the end. Not pure climbers, not pure sprinters. More like your puncheurs or breakaway specialists.
I mentally listed riders known for this kind of racing. Guys who often win from breaks or on tough, hilly finishes.
Making the Actual Prediction
So, after all that mulling over, I landed on a couple of names. I weighed the factors: the course difficulty, who seemed strong, whose team might let them off the leash. Sometimes it’s just a gut feeling based on watching years of cycling.
I considered maybe a breakaway surviving because the GC teams might watch each other. Then I thought about which breakaway artists were climbing decently. Put a few names down.
Then I thought, what if it comes back together for a reduced bunch? Who has the power after those climbs? Picked a name or two for that scenario as well.
In the end, I just picked the rider I felt had the best combo of form, suitability for the stage, and potential team tactics allowing them a shot. It’s never a guarantee, cycling is unpredictable, but that’s the process I went through this time around for Stage 8.
